A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
